Note: Revenue at $125.02 ATP (current blended). Velocity targets are advance-sale only — 24% walk-up boost not included in weekly targets. Break-even ~25K based on $6.8M expense structure.
Artist Breakdown
Sales by Artist — % of 12,100 Night Capacity
Miranda Lambert
1,744
14.4%
Charley Crockett
824
6.8%
Jon Pardi
1,849
15.3%
Miranda Lambert
Tickets
1,744
Revenue
$239,700
ATP
$137.44
Visits
12,204
Orders
306
Conversion
2.51%
Share
39%
Charley Crockett
Tickets
824
Revenue
$83,267
ATP
$101.05
Visits
5,190
Orders
142
Conversion
2.74%
Share
19%
Jon Pardi
Tickets
1,849
Revenue
$229,256
ATP
$123.99
Visits
9,846
Orders
276
Conversion
2.80%
Share
42%
Artist Sales Trajectory — Weekly (TM Sales Trends)
Solid lines = actual (from TM Sales Trends). Dashed = projected at current per-artist velocity. Night capacity: 12,100.
Per-Artist Night Sell-Through
What Each Night Needs — 12,100 Capacity Per Night
Miranda Lambert — May 28
1,744 (14.4%)
36% proj
14%
116/wk velocity$137.44 ATPNeed 10,356 more672/wk to sell out (5.8x)
TARGET
TICKETS
NEED
VEL NEEDED
MULTIPLIER
GROSS
Break-Even 69%
8,349
6,605
429/wk
3.7x
$1.15M
80%
9,680
7,936
515/wk
4.4x
$1.33M
90%
10,890
9,146
594/wk
5.1x
$1.50M
95%
11,495
9,751
633/wk
5.4x
$1.58M
100% SELLOUT
12,100
10,356
672/wk
5.8x
$1.66M
Charley Crockett — May 29
824 (6.8%)
17% proj
7%
57/wk velocity$101.05 ATPNeed 11,276 more732/wk to sell out (12.9x) !!!
TARGET
TICKETS
NEED
VEL NEEDED
MULTIPLIER
GROSS
Break-Even 69%
8,349
7,525
489/wk
8.6x
$844K
80%
9,680
8,856
575/wk
10.1x
$978K
90%
10,890
10,066
654/wk
11.5x
$1.10M
95%
11,495
10,671
693/wk
12.2x
$1.16M
100% SELLOUT
12,100
11,276
732/wk
12.9x
$1.22M
Charley needs 12.9x current velocity to sell out. At current pace, projects to just 17% of night capacity. Lowest traffic (5,190 visits vs 12,204 Miranda / 9,846 Pardi). This is the critical gap.
Jon Pardi — May 30
1,849 (15.3%)
41% proj
15%
139/wk velocity$123.99 ATPNeed 10,251 more666/wk to sell out (4.8x)
TARGET
TICKETS
NEED
VEL NEEDED
MULTIPLIER
GROSS
Break-Even 69%
8,349
6,500
422/wk
3.0x
$1.04M
80%
9,680
7,831
509/wk
3.7x
$1.20M
90%
10,890
9,041
587/wk
4.2x
$1.35M
95%
11,495
9,646
626/wk
4.5x
$1.43M
100% SELLOUT
12,100
10,251
666/wk
4.8x
$1.50M
SELL-OUT DATE AT EXACT CURRENT PACE
Miranda Lambert
Oct 2027
89 weeks (516 days late)
116/wk • 17/day
Charley Crockett
Nov 2029
198 weeks (1,276 days late)
57/wk • 8/day
Jon Pardi
Jul 2027
74 weeks (408 days late)
139/wk • 20/day
Show is May 28, 2026 — 108 days away. No night sells out within 14 months of the show at current pace.
Summary: Pardi needs 4.8x velocity (most achievable). Miranda needs 5.8x. Charley needs 12.9x — essentially impossible without a major marketing intervention or lineup change. At current pace, projected final attendance: Miranda ~4,400 (36%) | Charley ~2,100 (17%) | Pardi ~4,900 (41%). Combined: ~11,400 of 36,300 (31%).